Kingstone Companies - Investment Thesis

Tags: insurance stock, micro cap stock, investment thesis, homeowners insurance company investment

We purchased additional common shares of Kingstone Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: KINS) in late January when the company raised capital in a follow-on offering at $12 per share.  The stock has increased in the last week, but we were editing and getting this post through compliance.  So, this post is not timely.  We are sharing it to show our thought process.  We’ve owned shares in Kingstone since their previous equity offering in December 2013 at $5.95.  

Kingstone is a homeowners insurance company based in New York state.  The company has grown quickly since Superstorm Sandy as Allstate and State Farm have reduced their coastal exposures on Long Island.  Kingstone also writes insurance on several smaller lines such as physical damage on livery, which is purchased by Uber drivers, and commercial lines.

We like Kingstone for the following reasons:

1. Strong organic growth – Kingstone has been posting strong gross written premium growth.  The company has benefitted from large insurers, such as Allstate and State Farm, reducing their exposures to coastal areas, especially Long Island.  We believe these large insurers reduced risk systematically along the coast without consideration for pricing, so Kingstone has been able to grow while being able to price the risk appropriately.  

We believe Kingstone will continue this strong growth by expanding into adjacent states like New Jersey and Connecticut.  Homeowners insurance is a product that every homeowner is required to buy.  Kingstone has carved out a niche among independent insurance agents by providing superior service without channel conflict.

2. High returns – Kingstone has stated goals of 20% earnings growth, 20% operating margins, and a 20% return on equity.  We think these goals may be too ambitious in light of management wanting to keep premium-to-equity leverage at 1.5x, but we like that management is trying to generate attractive returns.

3. CEO is a proven money maker – With any small company, we believe the management is even more important because their decisions have higher impacts on the business.  We think very highly of Barry Goldstein, Kingstone’s CEO. In our interactions with him, he has been thoughtful and very astute about insurance.  He has shown the ability to recognize business opportunities but is able to balance this to protect his downside risk.  For example, he has exited lines of business where the economics are poor, such as commercial auto.  Goldstein is Kingstone’s largest shareholder.  Even though he sold a portion of his holdings in the most recent equity offering, we still believe his interests are closely aligned with other shareholders.  We believe he is an owner-operator and not an employee-manager, so he will sell Kingstone if an appropriate offer is made.  We believe he has no interest in hanging around to collect a paycheck.

4. New capital will drive earnings higher – Kingstone recently raised $30 million in a follow-on equity offering.  The company will use this capital to reduce the amount of quota-share reinsurance it buys.  The company has grown so quickly that it had to use quota-share reinsurance to support of its growth.  The company has steadily reduced the amount of quota-share insurance from 75% to 55% to 40% as it has grown its capital.  We believe they will lower the amount of quota-share reinsurance to 20% on July 1st.  The company still uses a conservative amount of excess-of-loss reinsurance to protect itself from storms.

5. Active buyer of reinsurance – Kingstone buys catastrophe reinsurance to protect itself from a 1-in-250 year storm.  We believe this is more conservative than its Florida peers.  Kingstone has been using the declining reinsurance price environment to further protect its balance sheet.   With its current reinsurance treaty, if Kingstone were to have a large loss, it would simply wipe out one quarter’s earnings.  It would not impact its equity capital.

6. Expecting a ratings upgrade which will drive business volumes – With the recent capital raise and continued increases in catastrophe reinsurance purchased, management believes that A.M. Best will raise the company’s rating from B+ to A-.  Such an increase will help the company write additional business.  Many insurance agents will not place policies with companies with ratings lower than A- from A.M. Best.  The potential ratings increase will help accelerate new business as the company enters new states.

7. Thoughtful, consistent expansion – Kingstone has methodically planned its expansion beyond New York state.  It has licenses to write homeowners in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Texas.  It has decided not to enter Texas because management could not get comfortable with the severity of windstorms in recent years.  Instead, Kingstone has recently started to write homeowners in New Jersey and will begin to write policies in Connecticut and Rhode Island later in 2017.  These states have similar weather patterns and clientele to New York.

8. Valuation is attractive – With the recent capital raise, Kingstone is trading at 1.5x book value or 6.5x our $1.95 estimate of 2018 earnings per share.  With Kingstone’s 20% growth rate, unique positioning in the northeastern US, and lower likelihood of hurricanes compared to its Florida-based peers, we believe the stock should trade at a significant premium to the 8.5x 2018 earnings at which the Florida-based homeowners insurance companies currently trade.  

9. Candidate for consolidation – At less than $200 million in market capitalization, Kingstone would be a bite-sized acquisition for another insurance company.   For the Florida-based homeowners companies, there would be risk diversification benefits from owning Kingstone’s NY state book of business.  For example, a homeowners company with exposure to Florida and New York would be charged lower reinsurance rates than a company writing solely in Florida.

10. Investment by RenaissanceRe Ventures – In early 2016, RenaissanceRe, the well-regarded catastrophe reinsurance company, approached Kingstone to make an investment.  They invested $5 million through a private placement of Kingstone common stock by their venture capital arm.  We infer from this investment that a smart player in catastrophe reinsurance liked the opportunity Kingstone has in homeowners insurance.  We believe RenaissanceRe has given Kingstone informal advice on its reinsurance program since making the investment, which raises our comfort level.

Risks

1. Higher operational risk due to small organization – Small companies have a greater risk of an operational misstep.  Fewer people are involved in making decisions.  Key executives may have to fill multiple roles, so the level of expertise may be lower.  We do not have any specific concerns regarding Kingstone.  Rather, we note they are small.

2. Potential for higher competition – Kingstone has benefitted from the vacuum left behind by State Farm and Allstate when they decided to reduce their exposure to Long Island. If these giant competitors reversed course and wanted to increase their exposure to Long Island, they could take business away from Kingstone.  We would note that these companies have steadily retreated from Florida since Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992, so we don’t think these companies will reverse course without serious consideration.

3. No direct writing capability – Kingstone has focused on distributing its policies exclusively through independent insurance agents.  As we all know from the never-ending TV ads, auto insurance companies have convinced customers to come to them directly to cut out the agent.  This shift to direct distribution has lagged in the homeowners insurance market.  If direct writing in the homeowners insurance market catches up to the auto insurance market, Kingstone is not well positioned.  That being said, there will always be some portion of the homeowners insurance market that will be sold through brokers.  Within the independent brokerage channel, Kingstone has such a small market share that the channel can shrink and Kingstone would still have plenty of room to grow.

4. Catastrophe reinsurance market may tighten – Kingstone has benefitted from the loose market for catastrophe reinsurance.  There have not been significant losses in catastrophe reinsurance since the 2005 hurricane season, so catastrophe reinsurance prices have declined for several years.  As these prices have declined, Kingstone has used the lower prices to buy the same dollar amount of reinsurance but has been able to secure higher levels of coverage.  If the catastrophe reinsurance market were to tighten, Kingstone would have to pay higher rates for reinsurance.  This could squeeze Kingstone profit margins if the company is not able to raise rates to its customers.

Overall, we believe Kingstone is an undiscovered gem of an insurance company.  The company has an attractive growth opportunity in front of it.  As shareholders, we are aligned with a money making CEO.  We like that the management has high return targets.  We believe the company will compound our capital at attractive rates for several more years.  Eventually, we believe Kingstone will become part of a large organization.

DISCLOSURE
The ideas expressed in this posting are the views and opinions of the author of this posting (Author). The Author has no obligation to update any of the information contained herein and has no obligation to update the posting to reflect any changes in the Author’s opinion on any of the companies or topics contained herein. Do not rely upon the information contained in this posting for making investment decisions; prepare your own analysis or contact your financial advisor. While the Author has tried to present facts it believes are accurate, the Author makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this note. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and there can be no assurance that targeted or projected returns will be achieved. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security discussed herein.

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