Arlington Investment Corp

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January 27, 2021

Arlington Investment (“AAIC”) is a mortgage real estate investment trust. AAIC’s liquidation value (or book value) is $5.90, and the stock is trading for $3.66.  We don’t think it will return to $5.90 in the near term, but we believe the stock can get to $5.60 (or 90% of the estimated Q4 book value) in 6 to 12 months, which is +53% higher than the current price.

The management at AAIC has made strategic changes to increase their liquidation value.  During the third quarter, they bought back stock at a discount to increase the liquidation value from $5.63 to $5.92. When they report the 4th quarter, we expect they will announce they continued to repurchase stock.  We estimate the liquidation value will rise to $6.10-$6.20. The company is involved in the mortgage market, so it is not a franchise company like Disney or Microsoft that you can own forever. This is just a trade from $3.66 to $5.60. We think the downside is minimal because management reduced risk earlier in the year. The company does not have much leverage.  On recent conference calls, management has expressed a conservative stance about investing the company’s capital.

Insiders at AAIC purchased shares on the open market at the end of September and again in early January. We believe AAIC has attractive potential return without much downside.

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Disclaimer: The discussion of any security is meant solely as an illustration of our investment and thought process and should NOT be considered as a recommendation or suggestion to buy or sell any securities. Before you make any investment, do your own research and talk to your own financial adviser. Information in this report is received from external sources. Therefore, we can make no guarantee as to the completeness or accuracy of the information provided.

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