Garrett Brookes:
Good afternoon everyone, and thank you for joining us. My name’s Garrett Brooks with Slingshot Financial. Slingshot is a Colorado registered investment advisor. We also serve as a fee-based representative to institutions for specialized investment managers. And I’m very excited to have with us today our partners at Gator Capital Management. Joining me is Derek Pilecki, the founder of Gator Capital Management, the firm which he founded in 2008. He’s currently the portfolio manager for the firm’s long short equity, which is a financials focused strategy. Obviously, we’ll get more into that. But really excited to have Derek with us here today. He manages his portfolio in a variety of structures, both private and public. Slightly different fee structures for each and liquidity constraints. But the same kind of principles, philosophy drive the investment process for each.
He’s received numerous accolades over the years for top of its class or category. And I think in an environment like we’re in right now, where the easy money and the Fed tailwind is not quite in place anymore, I think you really have to think differently. You have to specialize and really understand how to pick your spots, and manage risk in order to outperform on a risk adjusted basis. And I think Gator’s strategy offers some great opportunities. So we’re going to get into that a little bit here in a second. I would say if you have any questions, go ahead and put them in the chat and we’ll answer them as they came in at the end. But to get things kicked off here. Hey, Derek, thanks for joining us.
Derek Pilecki:
Hey, Garrett, thanks for hosting the webinar.
Garrett Brookes:
Glad to. And again, glad you could be here with us. To get things started, would you mind telling us a little bit about your background, how you came to form Gator. And I guess some of the experiences along the way which have shaped your investment philosophy and process?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, so getting to the point of starting Gator, Gator’s going to celebrate its 15th anniversary this June. But it was a long process to get to start Gator. When I had my first finance job after college, it was working for Fannie Mae, the mortgage company. So I was in their asset liability strategy group and I was an analyst. I ran the company’s risk-based capital stress test. And back in the mid ’90s, Fannie was one of the most admired companies in the country. And it was a great learning ground to learn about the fixed income market. Fannie’s basically long mortgage backed securities and short agency notes. And they were on the cutting edge of structured notes. We’d issued structured notes and swap out at the whatever interest rate payment it was back to LIBOR minus 12 or whatever the street was offering.
And so, it was a great way to learn about the whole fixed income market. And while I was there, I was doing a lot of reading on my own about stocks in the stock market. I came across Roger Lowenstein’s biography of Buffet, The Making of an American Capitalist, and just fell in love with the idea of having a small hedge fund. But I knew in my mid ’20s, I wasn’t ready to do it. I needed to get a little bit more training. So I went on this process where I went back to business school. I went to the University of Chicago, got my MBA, and used business school as a transition period to move from fixed income into equity research. And so, I worked at a couple small value shops after business school and it really made sense for me to cover financial companies, because I had worked inside a big financial company, and knew about interest rate risk management, and the like.
So I started covering financials on the buy side and then a classmate of mine from Chicago, who had gone to Goldman Sachs Asset Management, recruited me. He called me off and was like, “Hey, our bank analyst is just retired. And we own a bunch of Fannie Mae, will you please come interview?” And so, I moved to that. The Goldman job was actually in Tampa. They had bought a manager that had been previously part of Raymond James. And so, I moved to Tampa in 2002, 20 years ago, and worked for GSAM for five years covering financials for their team. And that team managed about $25 billion in growth stocks. I was one of two financials analysts on that team. Great training ground. I would say their investment philosophy was like a Charlie Munger style, buy great by great franchises, own them forever.
And so, I had my value roots and then influenced by a manager who followed Charlie Munger. And so, in 2008, it wasn’t so fun being an analyst at an equity shop, a growth shop following credit sensitive financials. So I’m not the favorite child, so I used that as an opportunity to start Gator. And so, I launched Gator. So we started our financials long short strategy in 2008.
Garrett Brookes:
That’s great. That’s a heck of a time.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, it was a crazy start. Yeah, I launched 10 weeks before they short Lehman Brothers, so that was a crazy time. But there was also a ton of opportunity [inaudible 00:05:37]. So I was able to maximize.
Garrett Brookes:
Yeah, it’s certainly a good time to be able to short.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, but that rally in 2009 was really tough to shorten too.
Garrett Brookes:
Right. Yeah.
Derek Pilecki:
You had a view the credit markets would heal and they weren’t going to nationalize any more big banks. I was able to call the turn in ’09. And so, we just have continued to find opportunity in the financial sector since then. So one of the outcomes of the financial crisis is there’s a lot of generalist portfolio managers who don’t love financials. They lost a bunch of financials in ’08, and they kind of just ignore the sector, or they don’t really dig deep into it. And so, I was always surprised by the number of good franchises that trade at cheap valuations in my sector.
Garrett Brookes:
As just a result of less analyst coverage, less fund managers covering. And then it’s also, if I’m hearing you correctly, a fairly good amount of dispersion among the constituents in your universe. So you kind of stack opportunities there to grab some premium.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, I mean I always think the opportunity sets right now is as good as it’s ever been with these changing interest rates, and companies, and financials… People say, “Oh, financials are an interest rate play.” Well, not every financial company responds to interest rates the same way. You have a lender that’s making fixed rate multi-family loans, and they have hot CDs as their funding base. They’re not going to benefit from higher rates like a bank that has commercial floating rate loans, and a really strong core checking account deposit base. So I think there’s a bunch of dispersion amongst returns within my sector, which is good for a long-short manager.
Garrett Brookes:
Absolutely. Absolutely. So you formed Gator in 2008 and began with the private fund, as well as some separately managed accounts, individual portfolios. And from there then assumed management of a mutual fund, a legacy mutual fund. And this is in November of 2017.
Derek Pilecki:
Right.
Garrett Brookes:
And then over the course of a year, transitioned the portfolio to your strategy as it is now, which was complete I guess in Q1 of 2019, if I’m not mistaken.
Derek Pilecki:
Correct. So Michael Orkin retired and started our process in 2017 to identify as a successor manager. I won that process and started on an interim basis. Took it over in November, 2017. The proxy was official in February of 2018. And Michael had run the portfolio as a bear market fund that he had really protected well on the downside in the internet bubble and the financial crisis. But that’s just not my style of investing. So I agreed with the board in early 2019 to transition the portfolio to be more similar to how I run my main strategies. And so, now it reflects my investment style. And there’s heavy overlap between the mutual fund, Caldwell & Orkin Gator Capital long-short fund, and my private fund.
Garrett Brookes:
Great. And actually I just checked on Morningstar before we jumped on here, and you are top 5% for the three year, and well within the top decile for the five year amongst your peers. So there is a clear change when you institute your portfolio on the legacy fund and it really bears out.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, I mean I think there’s been a good opportunity over the last few years and we definitely have been able to create some value over the last five years, and looking forward to the next five years because I think there’s still a lot of opportunity out there.
Garrett Brookes:
Yeah, and I am too. So with that being said, do you mind talking a little bit about your investment process and idea generation? I know it’s a bottom up portfolio and would really like to hear your thoughts as a specialist on how you go about constructing the portfolio.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, so we’re looking for stocks that are misunderstood. So usually that means they have a low valuation because people are ignoring them. They have a view that they’re just dead or the earnings are going to evaporate. We take a look at the low valuation stocks is okay, if these earnings can maintain and the street changes its view of what the value of that earning stream is, then we can get a higher multiple. So a five PE stock goes to an APE stock, that’s a pretty big return. And we’re also looking for some kind of catalyst that’s going to make that change. So an example would be Genworth Financial. We bought this stock last year. We had owned Genworth from 2012-2014.
And back then, the real issue was the mortgage insurance subsidiary ,where they’re going to have to raise additional capital to fill a cap potential capital hole in mortgage insurance. And that stock played out well as it became clear that mortgage insurance was just going to be fine, housing marketing was clearly recovering. Well, the stock kind of blew up on long-term care insurance in late 2014, early 2015. Long-term care insurance is a really tough business. You’re selling policies to 60 year olds for when they potentially go in a nursing home at 85. And so, they’ve written these policies 25 years ago that people are just making claims on, and the claims were way higher than anybody expected. So they kind of went through a long period.
If you look at the stock chart from 2014 to 2022, the stock flatlined. And during that period there was an aborted attempt to buy a Chinese insurance company to acquire them. They weren’t able to get that past regulators. And so, the stock flatlined around three or $4 a share, and investors just lost interest. I mean their socks were moving all over the place and Genworth’s just sitting there.
But during this time we had been following, Genworth had been doing a good job of raising prices in their long-term care insurance business. And they also were able to get the mortgage insurance subsidiary separated from the life insurance business, and they actually did an IPO of the mortgage insurance subsidiaries now enact holdings, which 20% trades on the New York Stock Exchange and Genworth still owns an 80% stake. And so, Genworth was fixing its capital. And then on the Q4 call last year, they said, “Hey, we’re getting this cash in. We’re going to our debts get paid down to the level where we’re comfortable. We’re going to start using excess cash now to buy back stock. And we’re going to probably make an announcement on Q1 earnings.”
And stock didn’t really respond. And so, we bought a position, they announced it on Q1 earnings, stock still didn’t respond. It wasn’t until they actually started implementing the stock buyback in late 2022 that the stock started going up. So it’s an example of follow things for a long time. For a long time there was nothing to do in Genworth, but then when the catalyst came of we’re going to start the stock buyback, we took a position and move forward. So cheap stock trades for… I mean I think it trades for three times earnings now. I think there’s creating value.
There is potential that long-term care, they could salvage some value out of that business. To own the stock here, you don’t really need that. They’re probably going to spin off the mortgage insurance business. And so, just a hated stock, couple billion dollar market cap, people weren’t paying attention, and we were able to make some money in a pretty tough stock market last year. So that’s just an example of the type of things we do. I would say right now, only about 20% of the portfolio has a market cap above $10 billion. So we have a lot of small mid-cap companies in the portfolio.
Garrett Brookes:
Yeah, and that’s actually been a great spot to be so far year to date.
Derek Pilecki:
It has. And if you look at the style boxes on Morningstar, they classify us as a small cap value style box. And when I think about positioning our mutual fund in a portfolio, I mean I think it’s a replacement for small cap value. We’re not just hugging the index with a lot of unique stories within small cap land. I think small cap is a place where active management still pays it. You can extract alpha if you’re following companies. The streets pull back on research efforts as big firms have experienced outflows due to shift from active to passive that there’s less buy sign analysts on the street. So I just think that the opportunity in small caps is still robust.
Garrett Brookes:
And in the same spirit, you know came from one of the large firms, one of the gorillas really just before forming Gator, and then larger firms before that as well. Do you think that you have any additional advantage in having your own firm? And is there anything else that you’re able to do that you couldn’t do at some of the larger firms, I guess?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, I think large firms have resources and they have a lot of people to throw at problems. I think one of the main advantage of a small firm is the lack of bureaucracy. I mean, I don’t have my day filled with administrative meetings. I spend a large percentage of my time focused on investment research. I don’t spend the month of the July writing 360 degree reviews of 15 team members. I give feedback instantly to my small team of four. And we’re not spending hours in meetings rehashing things or trying to posture. I mean, I’m doing investment research. So I think I go through more names, I spend more time on names. And I think that’s a real advantage.
Garrett Brookes:
Yeah, absolutely. Well you mentioned just before a little bit about the profile of the mutual fund. And in the spirit of having some fun here and also disclosure, I also am an investor in Gator long-short. And so, we work together. I’m also an investor in the strategy, and I thought my style is probably not very different than some of the investment advisors on the call here, and the other folks that I talk to on a daily basis. And so, I thought it’d be fun to give you an idea of my insight and the [inaudible 00:17:17] portfolio in.
And so, I’ve always been… I’ve shared this with you and just about anybody I’ve talked with, I’m a big fan of alternative strategies. My own portfolio could best be described as a risk-based asset allocation model. I use both active and passive. I dedicate a specific allocation to alternative strategies. They’re all liquid in a public format. And in the fourth quarter of last year, preparing to rebalance for Q1 here, I had decided that I wanted to reduce my traditional exposure in favor of increasing the alternative strategies.
And so, along the way throughout last year with the increase in vol, I had basically pulled out of some of my opportunistic equity allocations, you could consider them satellites I guess. Just because the vol became unpalatable for me. And also to dovetailing on your point, I tend to favor for the foreseeable future here, small value in favor of small growth. And so, what I did was actually removed small growth beta, a small growth beta position, and with the proceeds from that combined with some of the sold out of opportunistic equity, invested in the Gator long-short strategy, and included that in my liquid alternatives allocation.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, I mean I think that makes a lot of sense. You remember back from the internet bubble when small growth blew up, it was years. It was like a good 10 years before small growth showed any relative performance. I mean value went on a multi-year run after the internet bubble and we could see the same thing here. You look at some of the values of small growth companies and it’s still pretty high. And so, I think that makes a lot of sense.
Garrett Brookes:
And I just think also with… Certainly we could say, you could argue that liquidity will be pulled out of the system. It’s certainly not being added as it has been for the past 10 years. And so, I think that some of the more speculative, higher flying names, large cap as well as small caps, it’s going to be a little bit tougher. And so, I think that the value space is where you’re able to really extract some excess return for the level of risk.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, I agree. I think that makes a lot of sense.
Garrett Brookes:
So now some of the fun parts. Where are you seeing opportunity? What do you like right now?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, so in the portfolio, I really like midcap banks. So there’s many mid-cap banks that are growing earnings, they’re growing loan growth. That they’re well run, I think the underwriting’s conservative, and they’re trading for six or seven times earnings. And so, last year was really interesting. Banks came out of the gate the first January, February, hey rates are going up, banks are going to outperform. They outperformed the S&P by like 12% in January and February alone. And then Russia invaded Ukraine and they gave up all that outperformance through the end of June. And then from June on they kind of tracked the broader market. So super disappointing year last year for banks, especially given that rates are higher.
But with higher rates, earnings are higher on average for banks. Not every bank but on average for banks. And so, right now we have the cheapest valuations I’ve ever seen with for banks or not ever, but going back to the mid ’90s cheap. And so, I just don’t think these mid-cap banks should trade it for six or seven times earning. And so, examples are Pac West, Western Alliance, East West Bancorp, Webster Financial. So really excited about this group of banks. And I think that there could be easily a scenario where these banks trade for 10, 11, or 12 times earnings. So going from six, seven times earnings to low double digits would get a nice return. And in the meantime they’re growing their business and low growth is attractive.
I guess the negatives that people point out is, “Oh, well there’s deposit funding, costs are ramping up.” And yes, that that’s happening, but at some point that will level off and they’ll earn their normal margin. And in the meantime they’ve compounded their growth through continuing to put up one growth in the high single low double-digit area. A tangentially to that, I really like Puerto Rico for the banking environment. So Puerto Rico is a US territory. Banks there regulated by the FDIC, they issue press releases, they attend the American banking conferences. They are US banks.
Puerto Rico only has three banks on the island. So it’s an oligopoly. And if you go back to the pre-financial crisis, there were 11 banks in Puerto Rico and it was super competitive. And so, if you look at another island banking market, Hawaii, there’s four banks in Hawaii. And each of those four banks earn wide margins, and they have high returns, and they have premium valuations. But the Puerto Rican banks trade in line to at a slight discount to US banks. So I think that we’ve already seen evidence that their margins are going up and their returns are increasing. I think it’s a matter of time before the multiples go to a premium. So really think Puerto Rico’s interesting.
I think there’s selective opportunity in asset managers. So the two groups asset managers. Alternative asset managers, private equity firms. And then traditional asset managers, they publicly traded. They manage mutual funds or vehicles that we’re familiar with. And so, I think I see opportunities in both groups. So in alternative asset managers, I really like Carlyle. Carlyle had a phenomenal 2020, 2021 as all the private equity managers did. In 2022, Carlyle took a step back. They botched their CEO transition. So the founders had appointed dual CEOs five years ago. One left to become governor of Virginia. The other one, they didn’t renew his contract, so the founders stepped back in and took over management of the company last year. And the stock got crushed because of it.
It was like the street took this view of like, “Oh, it’ll never be fixed. People will leave Carlyle without a CEO,” which is just nonsense, I think. I can think there’s investment professionals that are there at Carlyle, they’ve been there their whole lives. They’re not going to leave just because there’s a little bit in transition. Well, the new CEO finally got appointed yesterday. And he’s a former Goldman guy. I think he’ll bring some credibility to Carlyle. One of the knocks on Carlyle is they’re less profitable than the other the private equity shops. Carlyle had always managed their business where we run and operate the business on management fees. So we spend all our management fees trying to grow the business. And then we pay ourselves on the incentive fee. Well, when that was fine, when they’re privately traded partnership, but now that they’re publicly traded, and Blackstone, and KKR showing huge profitability on the management fee line item alone, Carlyle changed.
And so, they’ve shown a ton of operating leverage the last three years, that transition’s happening. I still think there’s some probably excess expenses in Carlyle’s expense base. I think the new CEO will come in and attack that and they’ll show even more operating leverage. So I really like Carlyle valuation came down to nine or 10 times fee related earnings, and then you get all the incentive income for free. So I just think that’s way too cheap. Normally people, they do some of the parts and they buy 15 or 18 times to management fees, and maybe a two or three multiple to incentive fee. So I think there’s a lot upside with Carlyle. Within the traditional asset managers, I like Vertice and I like Victory Capital. Both are acquisitive firms. They buy smaller managers, they consolidate the back office and the sales teams, they hold onto the assets they acquire, and they’re hugely creative deals.
And so, I think it’s a little bit of financial engineering. They’re able to get these small managers cheap because traditional asset managers are so out of favor because we have the shift from active to passive. But it just works in an acquisition strategy. So they both trade at six times the EBITDA. I think that’s too cheap. I think they’ll continue to make a creative acquisitions, and they’ve been smart with their capital management.
And then on the long side of the last thing that I like, is the selective life insurance companies. So I already mentioned Genworth, another one I like is Jackson National. It’s a classic spinoff type story. It was a subsidiary of Prudential UK, the British Insurance company, they decided to spin it off. Prudential UK, of course, trades in London. When they spun off the shares, the shares traded in US. So you had a bunch of UK investors all of a sudden end up with this tiny position, this unloved newly spun off US insurance company. So the valuation came on the first day of the spinoff, came out super cheap. Still trades at a cheap multiple. Management team’s been very aggressive with capital management, buying back shares, paying an attractive dividend. It’s an ugly business. Variable annuity platform is… There’s a lot of downside risk when the market goes south, but I think they’ve done a good job of managing the risk and managing their capital. So those are the ideas I like on the long side.
Garrett Brookes:
And I think you’re hammering home just how differentiated the different drivers of excess return within the financial space. Myself and other kind of macro level asset allocators, I think we tend to look at financials as a pure yield curve shape play or kind of a price momentum. And this really is kind of eye-opening that there are deeper value situations here and different ways to add some premium.
Derek Pilecki:
Yes.
Garrett Brookes:
How about… Oh, I’m sorry.
Derek Pilecki:
Oh, I was just going to say the view that you want to only buy financials when the yield curve steep, you miss all these stories. There’s a lot of stories that are not driven by interest rates.
Garrett Brookes:
Yeah. How about on the other side, the short side?
Derek Pilecki:
Well, I think the most glaring obvious thing is office. We have a problem with offices. I mean, people aren’t going to go back to work. If they go back to work, they’re not going every day. While there might be the investment bankers, and the advertising executives, and the attorneys need to be in the office, so they do their apprenticeship model. There’s a lot of people who are not going back to the office. Law firms that you should have 10 floors in midtown Manhattan, their back office people don’t need to be in-person, they’re going to work from home. They’re going to take seven floors when their lease renews.
And so, what we’ve seen is people are paying their leases when they expire, they’re going to take less space. That’s a problem for office owners. So the bull case on office rates is, oh well they trade a huge discount to NAV. Well an NAV implies private market values are real. I totally disagree with that. There’s a problem. We have too much office space in the US. It’s an acute problem in the central business districts, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. The commutes are too long. People aren’t going to do make those commutes anymore. Excuse me.
Garrett Brookes:
Sure.
Derek Pilecki:
So I’m sure at every office street, I think it’s a huge opportunity on the short side.
Garrett Brookes:
Yeah, and that’s a great point because you do… That is what you hear. If you listen to the financial press, they’re already a discount to NAV. Well, that’s a great point. What is the NAV? And I think we’ve talked about this before and there’s just not a lot of transactions in office right now. So those are probably kind of due for markdowns, those NAVs.
Derek Pilecki:
Right.And we also see it from the bank lens. We talked to banks. Banks are starting to call out what their office exposure is, what the LTVs are, how big the portfolio is, how much is suburban versus central business district. They’re all talking about we’re not making new office loans. And when capital leaves a sector like we saw with oil and gas, when you cap service sector, stock valuations do not work. Stock prices do not work. And so, if they can’t get loans rolled over, it’s just not going to work.
Garrett Brookes:
That’s great. Thank you.
Derek Pilecki:
And I guess on the other short opportunity is there’s been a lot of new companies that have come public through SPAC or IPO over the last two or three years. And so, some of those business models are untested, some of them are flimsy. So I think a lot of them got crushed in 2022. But with this junk rally in early 2023, we’re revisiting some of those stories that we’re going to get a second bite at the apple wall. So I think that’s pretty interesting
Garrett Brookes:
That’s interesting. That’s a great point. This kind of risk on rally that we’re seeing has giving you a new entry point for the shorts.
Derek Pilecki:
Definitely.
Garrett Brookes:
Well, thank you. Thank you for the time. Like anybody has any questions here? I’m going to again open up this chat and field a couple as they came in. Looks like there’s just a couple in here. Okay. So I think what this one is getting at is, can you talk about what drives long versus short percentage or allocation in your strategy?
Derek Pilecki:
Yep. So right now the mutual fund is 90% gross long and we’re 30% gross short, so the net 60. I would say that’s pretty typical when I look back through the history of my strategies, can’t say that changing the net exposure has added a ton of alpha. Really the alpha has been from stock picking. And so, we focus on that. I would say it’s driven from a bottom up perspective of if we find more shorts, our net exposure will be less. We do not use leverage to the extent that we don’t make gross longs above a hundred percent.
So I think about this level is about what you would expect. Maybe it’ll go to 50, maybe it’ll go to 75 or 80, but in the 60 range is what I would expect the normal course would be. I think that there could be a scenario where if I got uncomfortable with underwriting in the banking system generally, where I thought that there was going to be real problem with credit losses, we could get our net exposure way down. I don’t anticipate that happening. I think everybody still has PTSD from the financial crisis and underwritings staying strong, that regulators are solo over the banks. The Dodd-Frank Bill has gotten a lot of the more risky lending outside of the banking system. And so, I don’t envision a scenario where banks will really loosen up underwriting in the near term.
Garrett Brookes:
That’s great. And you already answered the next one, which was about do you employ leverage? And so, we have one more here. This is a fun one. Do you think we will see more mergers in the asset management space?
Derek Pilecki:
I do think it’s going to be a consolidating industry. I think there’s a couple things driving it. I think there’s some headwinds with the shift from active to passive. I think we have some generational turnover, And so, people are going to be looking for exits. I think there will be continued consolidation in that space. Yes.
Garrett Brookes:
Great.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, we know how hard it is for small managers to get started, and consultants are really driving the market, and flows gravitate to the bigger managers. So I think there’s a real case for scale and asset management.
Garrett Brookes:
Yeah. Great. And I guess we can wrap it up here. It doesn’t look like there’s any more. Obviously, if anybody has questions, specific things that they’d like to talk about offline, feel free to reach out to me. You could also just quickly pop a message here into the chat and I’ll catch up with you at a convenient time. But any parting words here, Derek?
Derek Pilecki:
No I mean, I appreciate everybody’s attention. We’ve been running the mutual fund for five years. We’ve been running our broader strategy for 15 years. I think there’s a lot of opportunity and long short financials, especially in the small midcap area. So appreciate everybody’s time today.
Garrett Brookes:
Fantastic. And I think there’s a ton of opportunity as well. All right, everybody, thank you for joining us. And hope to talk to you again and join us for future programs here. Take care.
SCT ID#’16442915
Several preferred stock issues of different mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (“mREITs”) appear attractive. mREITs had a very difficult 2022 because mortgage spreads widened significantly. Mortgage spreads widened because the Federal Reserve stopped buying mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) as part of their Quantitative Easing Program. Since mREITs own MBS on a leveraged basis, when mortgage to-Treasury spreads widen, the book value of mREITs decline. Also, higher interest rates are a headwind for mREITs and their related preferred issues.
In September 2022, mortgage spreads gapped out. Investors in mREIT preferreds became worried that the losses would cause book values to decline and possibly impair the value of the preferreds. For the preferred to be impaired, it would mean 100% of the book values were wiped out. When mREITs reported their book value declines for the September quarter, they were only down 15-20% across the industry, so no mREIT preferred issues were impaired. Since September 30th, mortgage spreads have tightened (or declined), which has been positive for book values. Now, the mREIT preferreds have more equity protecting them. But, the preferred values only marginally recovered through year-end.
Another interesting aspect of the mREIT preferreds is the market seems to be ignoring the upcoming Fixed-to-Floating resets. Most mREIT preferreds are structured with an initial 5-year fixed rate term. Then, the coupon resets to a floating rate such as the 3-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”) plus a spread. On mREIT preferreds, the spread is usually around 5%. With 3-month SOFR at 4.7%, these mREITs are going to reset to a coupon around 9.7%. To me, it looks like the market is ignoring the upcoming resets. Instead, the market is pricing these mREIT preferred issues based on the yield on the fixed rate coupon because most of them are trading at a similar current yield of 9%. But, if we look at the yield after the reset, they are trading with yields between 10% and 13%. Some of the resets are within the next two years, while others are still more than 4 years away. We note that the mREIT issues that have already gone from fixed to floating trade close to their par value.
We like the total return potential on the mREIT preferred issues as they approach their fixed-to-floating reset dates.
We are short the shares of several Office REITs. We believe the demand for office space will stay very low as the workforce adjusts to hybrid working conditions. Most office leases are multi-year leases. As these leases burn off, we believe companies will demand less space. We think this presents a long-term problem for owners of office space as the demand for future office leases will be materially lower compared to pre-pandemic.
We think it’s difficult to see how much value destruction there is in the financial statements of office REITs because their tenants are still paying their current leases. But, we have leading indicators that demand destruction is taking place, such as
We think there is an especially acute problem in major gateway cities such as New York City and San Francisco, as the workforce does not want to return to commuting into these central business districts. But, we do not think there is a safe place to hide for owners of office buildings.
We started a new position in Carlyle Group (“Carlyle”) during Q4. Carlyle is a name-brand private equity firm. We like the private equity business because 1) the sector is taking market share with investor portfolios, 2) the business results of private equity firms are asymmetrical in bull markets versus bear markets, and 3) the locked-up client capital is more durable than traditional investment managers.
Carlyle’s stock had a tough 2022. Private equity firms had very strong years in 2020 and 2021 as investors recognized the attractiveness of the business model. They bid up multiples to unattractive levels. Then as the bear market of 2022 unfolded, investors pulled away from the stocks of private equity firms due to the firm’s equity exposure. The high market valuations made it unattractive for private equity firms to make new investments, and, at the same time, the declining stock market made it difficult to monetize existing investments.
Carlyle underperformed the other private equity firms for a couple of reasons: 1) the company botched the CEO transition from the three company founders to the next generation, and 2) fund raising slowed after raising several large funds in 2021. Investors are understandably concerned about the botched CEO transition from several angles: 1) the firm will have trouble attracting and retaining talent, or 2) large investors will be reluctant to commit to new funds. We believe Carlyle’s founders will resolve the CEO issue in the 1st half of 2023. Once a new CEO is in place, investors should feel more comfortable buying the stock.
At its current valuation, we are buying Carlyle at about 10x fee-related earnings (“FRE”). FRE measures all costs of the company against the management fees to estimate earnings without regard to incentive or performance fees. So, even if Carlyle never earned a performance fee in the future, we’d be paying a reasonable multiple for the FRE income stream. Of course, this is simplistic because if Carlyle never earned a performance fee in the future, then the firm would never raise another fund, and the management fee stream would melt away. We fully expect Carlyle to earn performance fees in the future, but we view them as free options.
Another potential upside to Carlyle is improved operating margins. When Carlyle was privately owned, the firm’s operating model was to run the business at break-even on a management fee basis, and the partners would get paid on performance fees. As Carlyle and other private equity firms became publicly traded, it became obvious that the other PE firms were profitable on a management fee basis versus Carlyle’s model of break-even. We have two thoughts about Carlyle’s practice of running the firm breakeven on a management fee basis:
If Carlyle were to bring in an outside CEO, we believe there is an opportunity for them to improve Carlyle’s operating margin and improve its valuation. Carlyle is unique amongst its peers with its opportunity for margin expansion.
We believe the opportunity in growth regional banks remains compelling. We believe investors are missing three things by not buying regional banks at these valuations: 1) margins may widen or shrink, but they will settle down once the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) stops raising rates, 2) loan growth is very good and is the main earnings driver over any time period greater than 2 years, and 3) loan credit quality is likely to be better than sell-side estimates for 2023 and 2024.
Bank stocks had a disappointing year in 2022. During January and February, banks outperformed the broader market. It looked like the thesis of banks benefitting from higher interest rates was going to be the story of 2022. Then, in March, the tone around bank stocks changed with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the tougher talk from Fed Chairman Powell. Instead of banks operating in a goldilocks environment of higher rates and growing economy, investors priced in higher credit losses due to a possible recession. Also, in March, the Federal Reserve became more hawkish in response to rising inflation numbers. With the Fed rapidly raising interest rates, the positive story for banks of higher interest rates leading to wider margins shifted to rapidly increasing rates causing deposit costs to rise faster than expected.
Now, regional bank stock valuations are at the bottom end of the historical range. According to Stephens, the median price-to-earnings ratio (“P/E ratio”) of regional banks is less than 9x forward estimates. This is an unusually low valuation. Historically, banks have traded at this low valuation or cheaper just 5% of the time. When the banking industry has traded at this low of a valuation, the forward returns have been very strong on average. We think investors are concerned about potential credit quality issues in banks’ loan portfolios and rising deposit costs. However, we think select regional banks, such as AX, WAL, WBS, and CNOB, are attractive due to their loan growth outweighing near-term margin pressures.
We have owned a position in Axos Financial for 2 years, but the stock is off 37% from its high in early 2022. We think Axos is a good example of the opportunity in bank stocks right now. Axos has strong organic growth. It has low credit losses and will benefit from higher rates. No company specific issues have materialized in 2022 to explain the stock decline.
Here is our investment thesis on Axos Financial:
Other stock market investors see risks to Axos Financial’s shares:
We like Axos Financial. We think the stock is interesting at the current level. The management team has a strong record of consistent, organic growth. The bank’s current valuation is low, especially compared to recent history. We think the bank has ample opportunity for continued growth. We view Axos as an example of a bank holding in our portfolio that demonstrates low valuation, solid organic growth, and low likelihood of material credit losses in the medium-term. We have a dozen or more holdings with similar characteristics.
We own positions in both Enact Holdings and its parent company, Genworth Financial. Enact is one of six mortgage insurance companies. Mortgage insurance is purchased by borrowers to protect lenders if the borrower defaults on their mortgage. The government mortgage agencies (“GSEs”) require mortgage insurance when the borrower has a down payment of less than 20% of the home’s purchase price. Usually, first-time homeowners are the largest users of mortgage insurance since they often have the most difficult time accumulating enough savings for a 20% down payment. We believe the demand for mortgage insurance will be strong, but the mortgage insurance companies’ stocks are priced as though future earnings will not grow.
Here are our investment theses on Enact Holdings and Genworth Financial:
Enact Holdings
Other stock market investors see risks to Enact’s shares:
Our two main reasons for this constructive view of the housing market are as follows:
1) Almost 100% of current mortgages were underwritten with fully documented loans.
2) We have a shortage of homes because we did not build enough houses in the 12 years since the Great Financial Crisis. We don’t believe home prices are at-risk in the near-term. We hold this view despite the potential for higher interest rates.
Genworth Financial
We also own shares of Enact’s parent company Genworth Financial. We think Genworth is more attractive than Enact. Here is our investment thesis on Genworth:
We believe Enact and Genworth are both interesting stocks at their current valuations. We believe Genworth has a higher upside due to being a leveraged version of Enact, and because of its other two assets to which the market is not assigning any value.
We like Realogy Holdings (“Realogy” or “RLGY””). Realogy is the parent company of Coldwell Banker and Century 21. We believe the Coldwell Banker name has significant brand value among residential real estate owners. Realogy trades at only 4.4x EBITDA. We think stock market investors are overly concerned about disruption of residential real estate brokerage.
In the previous 5 years, Realogy’s brokerages had lagged due to a concentration to New York city and the suburbs where home prices and activity had lagged. Since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) until the pandemic, homes prices in the New York suburbs had been stagnant. The main reason for the stagnation was the decline in high-paying Wall Street jobs. Wall Street was not creating a new generation that could move to Darian, CT or Summit, NJ to buy over-priced homes from the previous generation of Wall Streeters. With the pandemic prompting people to move to the suburbs, Realogy has benefitted from the resurgence of activity.
Other stock market investors don’t love Realogy for a couple of reasons:
We think owning Realogy’s stock at its low valuation of 4.4x EBITDA is very attractive. We believe there are several potential catalysts that will help the stock re-rate to a higher valuation. First, Realogy has two high coupon debt issues that are callable in 2022. Second, after refinancing these two debt issues, we expect Realogy’s management will start to repurchase common shares during 2022. Finally, we expect Realogy will continue to report strong earnings due to the strong housing market.
Robert Kraft:
This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. SNN Network, SNN Inc, and the Planet MicroCap Podcast, and the representatives are not licensed brokers, broker/dealers, market makers, investment bankers, investment advisors, analysts, or underwriters. We do not recommend any companies discussed, we may buy and sell securities in any company mentioned, and may profit in the event those securities rise in value. We recommend you consult with a professional investment advisor broker or legal counsel before purchasing or selling any securities referenced in this podcast.
Robert Kraft:
Welcome to the Planet MicroCap Podcast. I’m your host Robert Kraft, and thank you all so much for the support and for tuning in. You can follow Planet MicroCap on twitter, @BobbyKKraft, that’s B-O-B-B-Y K-R-A-F-T, you’re listening to episode 193. If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to tweet at me or shoot me an email at rkraft@snnwired.com. And when you do get a chance, if you like what you hear, please rate and review Planet MicroCap on iTunes, it really helps provide feedback for me, and spread the MicroCap message.
Robert Kraft:
Now we announced last week, so I thought we’d, uh, put out a l- another little reminder here, um, we are hosting our next virtual event, the SNN Canada Virtual Event, happening December 7 through 9, 2021. Uh, we at SNN Network, we’re teaming up with Paul Andreola and the team at Small Cap Discoveries to highlight our neighbors through the North Canada. So, uh, the website to go and register for that is canada.snn.network. You can expect three days of keynotes, educational panels, company presentations, and one-on-ones. Uh, we’re- uh, we’re very excited for the lineup that we’re gonna be showcasing for you all at this event, so be sure to register and get all the updates as they, uh, come. So again, to register, please go to canada.snn.network, and click the register button.
Robert Kraft:
Now for this episode of the Planet MicroCap Podcast, I spoke with Derek Pilecki. He is the Portfolio Manager at Gator Capital Management. After a great recommendation by friend of the show, Rich Howe from Stock Spinoff Investing, Derek and I found time to connect and discuss all things financials. Uh, we chat about regional banks, Puerto Rico, consumer finance, and what it’s like starting a hedge fund in the middle of the global financial crisis. Since launching Gator Capital, his funds performance has been nothing but stellar, a 21.52% annual compound return, and I really enjoyed finding out why. So thank you again for tuning in to episode 193 of the Planet MicroCap Podcast, and please enjoy my conversation with Derek Pilecki.
Robert Kraft:
Welcome back, everybody, to the Planet MicroCap Podcast. I’m your host Robert Kraft, you can follow me on twitter, @BobbyKKraft, that’s B-O-B-B-Y K-K-R-A-F-T. And today’s guest is, uh… We- we- we succumbed to the, uh, Twitter peer pressure, and we… I really… We had to pull each other’s leg to make this happen, you know. Uh, I’m su- I’m just a shy podcast host, he’s just a- a- a shy Twitter guy as well, but, you know, we’ve made it work, so, I- I’m really excited to, uh, welcome on today, Derek Pilecki. He is the Portfolio Manager at Gator Capital Management. Derek, thank you so much for joining me today, how are you doing?
Derek Pilecki:
Hey, Bobby, I’m doing well. Thanks for having me on the podcast, happy to be here.
Robert Kraft:
Yeah, I- it’s great to have you on, and I really appreciate you taking the time today. So let’s dig right in. You know, uh, a- a- m- as my… I usually ask every guest on here, uh, unless I’ve interviewed them before, you know, I- I’d love to know where your passion for investing began.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, I mean, I- I- I started investing right in college, uh, and I- I used college as a way to learn as much about investing as I could. So I mean, I read the Wall Street Journal every day, I would go to the library every day and read the Wall Street Journal cover to cover, bought, bought a few stocks. Um, you know, I graduated from college in 1992, so it was like, right before the internet started. So, you know, a lot of- lot of the learning was paper-based.
Derek Pilecki:
I guess where I really developed my passion for investing was I- I worked at Fannie Mae right out of college, the mortgage company, and I did a lot of reading at night about investing. Like, it was a great… I mean, I have a different view of Fannie Mae than the rest of the world. I got… I think it’s- I- it was a great first job in finance for me, and I read a- as much as I could about that markets at home every night. And, um, you know, I- I read Roger Lowenstein’s, uh, biography on Buffett; The Making of American Capitalists, and when I read that, I was like, I wanna- I wanna manage a portfolio.
Derek Pilecki:
But I knew, you know, I was 24, 25 at the time, I knew I needed to get training, and it was gonna be a long journey to open up, um, a fund, or you know, become a portfolio manager. So like, that kind of just sparked my- my path towards trying to become a professional investor.
Robert Kraft:
Absolutely. So I mean, I- I gotta go back to when you were, you know, still in college, and going to read, you know, the Wall Street Journal, uh, cover to cover. I mean, what inspired you to do that even- even prior to then going and working at Fannie Mae?
Derek Pilecki:
Uh, I mean, I think… I mean, I- I learned about the- the stock market from my grandfather when, uh… You know, I would r… Growing up, I was a baseball fan, right? And so I… Like, S- Sunday morning, and I’d read the… They’d publish everybody’s batting average, and it was only s- like, you know, through the week, they published like, the top 15 batters in each league, and, you know, I’d study them. And then on Sundays, it was a big day because they’d publish all the- the entire league, and, um…
Derek Pilecki:
But then Monday would come around and all of a sudden, there’s these, the business page was right next to the sports page, I was like, “Well, what are these numbers? Like, I love numbers, how- there’s not batting averages, I don’t know- recognize any of these players.” My grandfather explained, “No, these are companies and…” You know, he used Exxon as an example, like, this is in the 80s, like, oil… Before the oil crash of the 80s, like, Exxon was the biggest company like, in the country, or biggest market capital.
Derek Pilecki:
And he- he explained like, “This is the stock price, it changes every day,” and, you know, “Here’s volume.” And- and he just explained what the pages were. And it was a little… You know, it was a lot for me to understand at the time, but I just tried to, tried to learn a l- as much as I could about investing, and in r- in business, um, as that, that is the start.
Robert Kraft:
Well, you know, I’m- I’m- I’m also a huge baseball fan. So before we continue, I gotta ask who your team is? Of course, I- you can see my team pretty much, right? Yeah, all you have to see is the two, and you know who it is? R- w- so who’s your team?
Derek Pilecki:
I- well, you know, I’ve lived in Tampa for 18 years, so I’ve adopted the Rays. I was born in Philadelphia, so when I was a kid, the Phillies were my team, right? So I, uh, you know, Mike Schmidt’s my baseball hero, and I went to his Hall of Fame induction ceremony, but, uh, you know, but it… The Rays are hard not to root for, right? I mean, they’re the huge underdogs, the American League East is a tough division. And, uh, you know, really impressed with how they man- you know, navigate the- the season year to year, with, uh, less resources than the Red Sox and Yankees, so…
Robert Kraft:
Uh- uh, listen, I gotta tell you, I- I think you might be the first Rays fan I’ve ever met. Um, so I- I… Kudos, I figured it was mostly just Yankee fans in the stands, uh, or…
Derek Pilecki:
(laughs).
Robert Kraft:
… the other teams stands in the [inaudible 00:07:27]. So this is d- debunking that myth for me, so I- I again, apologize to all you Rays fans, and enj- j- enjoy your success, and okay, you’re doing great.
Derek Pilecki:
(laughs)
Robert Kraft:
All right. But, uh, but yeah, so that- that’s a b- this is- this is big news for me.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, wh- w- we’re going to the game tomorrow, gotta, you know… Our magic number is, I think it’s seven now, so we gotta get… Hopefully, by the time you, you publish this podcast, that we’ve clinched the American League East this year. So it’s exciting, doesn’t happen all the time, so gotta enjoy it while it’s happening.
Robert Kraft:
Sure. All right. So let’s get back to finance investing.
Derek Pilecki:
Sure.
Robert Kraft:
So, okay, so catch us up. So, um, tell us a little about- about from when you were at Fannie Mae to then, uh, when you launched Gator Capital?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. So, you know, I decided at Fannie Mae that I wanted to make, become an investor professionally and yeah, I guess. At Fannie Mae had the role of I was an analyst in our asset liability management. So like we are, my group would forecast net interest income for the firm and do budgets and, um, measure, do market measures of risk. And my job was to load all the assets and liabilities of the company into a computer so that we could do a m- model run and this is like circa 1995. And it would take like 10 hours to do one interest rate scenario. So like, if I didn’t load everything in perfectly, I wasted 10 hours computer time.
Derek Pilecki:
So like I knew that balance sheet at a [inaudible 00:08:47] level and it was a great lesson in fixed income, right, that Fannie owns a bunch of mortgages and mortgage backed securities and CMOs, and then they, they, um, fund their liabilities by selling agency debt, callable bonds, structured notes, and then a lot of the structure notes, they swap back to live or float or so. It was just a great education and finance for me, but you know, I didn’t want to run a bond portfolio, I want to run the equity portfolio like at night, we’d all stand around the Bloomberg and pitch stocks to each other, right?
Derek Pilecki:
And we’re not pitching, oh, I really like the, the Fanny sixes here like you, you, you pitch like I like Cisco or like, you know, Bank of America. So, um, you’ve just developed you know, I knew I needed to move to equity research and I didn’t think I could do that directly from Fannie Mae. So I went back to business school Chicago, and used that as the, the pivot to equity research. And so, um, you know, I love Chicago. I was in the class of 2000 to Chicago.
Derek Pilecki:
So there’s some pretty good and professional investors that were in my class like Dan Kozlowski, who was at Janis for a while, was there. Josh Spencer, who runs the tech fund at T. Rowe Price is there. Matt Freeman who runs the fidelity value fund was in my class. And so like, I felt like we were lucky that we had some top notch investors in that class of Chicago was a great learning experience.
Derek Pilecki:
And then, um, how I got a job at the buy side and had a small firm in Chicago, I, I, um, I transitioned to another firm in Rochester, a deep value firm in Rochester, New York called clover capital. And I loved that job but I was in the job for a couple years and a classmate of mine from Chicago called me up and said, “Hey, I’m, I’ve been working at GSam, you know, Goldman Asset Management and our, our bank analysts just retired and we own a bunch of Fannie Mae stock, will you please come interview because he knew I had worked at Fannie Mae.
Derek Pilecki:
And so I, I was like, you know, “I like my job.” He’s like, “Come on, it’s, you know, this is a good job.” And so I, I went interviewed for the Goldman bank analyst job on the buy side. And, you know, it was, I got the, got the offer because they owned Fannie and they needed help of managing that position. So, you know, I trained, I moved to Florida to work for GSam. GSam had bought this money manager that had been part of Raymond James, and so moved to Tampa in 2002. And, um, you know, worked for GSam for five years.
Derek Pilecki:
And you know, it was a, it was unfortunate, Fannie and Freddie ran into trouble almost coincidentally with me starting at GSam, seemed like it was not fun managing those positions for, for GSam. They, they Freddie had its earnings issues and then Fannie had its, it’s accounting issues, and then we ran into the housing crisis. And so, you know, I wasn’t having a great time at GSam. In 2008, I was like, “I- I want to go run my own portfolio rather than being an analyst.” I felt like I worked for a couple firms, gotten a good professional training and it was time to, to go start Gator. So I launched Gator in mid 2008.
Robert Kraft:
Very cool. All right. So before we get to Gator Investment Philosophy, you know, other than when you were doing all your own research yourself, you know, what would you say was the biggest lessons you learned that prior to founding Gator Capital in 2008?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. Um, so I’ve always been drawn to the value [inaudible 00:12:18] I kind of think you… It’s… Your investing style fits your personality, right? And so I’m always looking for bargains or, um, I don’t want to overpay for things. And you know, in a market like right now that, that’s a painful d- disposition to have, because the most expensive stocks go up the most right now. And so I don’t think that’s a permanent state of affairs. Like I think the market right now is very much like 1999.
Derek Pilecki:
So he just says that as a background, I’ve, you know, I was just naturally drawn to being a value investor. I think Fannie Mae is a, was a value investor in the bond market. They were always looking for value. I worked at a deep value firm, um, you know, I guess I- I did a lot of a lot of reading, I was drawn to the buffet, all the books that have been written about buffet, I attended a few, um, annual meetings.
Derek Pilecki:
And, uh, you know, I’ve been wanting to expand beyond just value investing to, you know, GARP investing or growth investing. And g- the Goldman team I worked for was more GARP investors. And so covering financials for, you know, a growth team just gives you a little bit different perspective. I guess one of the things I, that really opened my eyes was, when I got the clover, which was this deep value firm. I was like, “Okay, this guy’s going to do great fundamental research, this is going to be a great lesson.”
Derek Pilecki:
And within like the first few weeks of getting there, they’re like, we’ve put a technical analysis overlay on our fundamental investing to try to improve our entry point. And so I was like, “Whoa,” like that, that was not what I was expecting. And so we you know, was well reason, like, uh, I guess, you know, the value market… This is might seem like ancient history to a lot of people but that 1998 value stocks were terrible, right? They, um, they, it just the, the mid 90s, bull market value stocks did great. And then kind of like 97, they peaked out.
Derek Pilecki:
And while growth stocks continue to do well through the rest of the decade, ’98, ’99, 2000 or ’98, ’99 really value stocks were really a tough place to be. And, um, I think, I think that was a tough for that… Even though I wasn’t at that firm during that time period. Their lesson was, there’s a lot of stocks that they’d like, they got cheap and they kept getting cheaper and they got into stocks too early kind of, you know, a value investor buys too early, and they sell too early, right and they, and they were trying to improve those entry and exit points.
Derek Pilecki:
And so they said, a lot of times what, if you look at a stock chart, the stock chart might look ugly, it’s at a value that you want to buy, but it might get cheaper and you just have to wait and pick, better pick your price. And then on the, on the exit side, you know, they weren’t, they used to have firm price targets of, okay once, when this bank gets the 13 times earnings, it’s too expensive. Banks can’t trade at 13 times earnings. But sometimes banks trade up to 18 times earnings, so they, they tried to use some technical analysis to, to improve their, their sell points too. So I think that was a, that was an unexpected learning that I had working at a value firm that over relies on technical analysis so.
Robert Kraft:
Very cool. All right, so now we’re here at Gator Capital, you know, would love to little learn. And you’ve already alluded to this a little bit as well. But what would you say is, is the firm’s and yours in turn, uh, your investing framework? And, and what, what would you say is your focus, uh, uh, and, and why?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. So, you know, at Gator we focus on fi- the financial sector because that’s where my expertise is. So, um, you know, I think that the financial sector is one of the few sectors where you really need to have specialization. So, um, you know I think energy and biotech and financials, you need specialists to cover those sectors or invest in those sectors for people like it’s hard for generalists to come, just kinda show up and say, “Oh, this stock’s cheaper.”
Derek Pilecki:
Um, and so I’ve really focused on going deep within the sector and really, you know, there’s, you know, it was about a thousand publicly traded financials. 600 of them are micro cap banks. And so the other 400 are larger banks, um, capital markets firms, insurance rates, um, exchanges. And so I, you know, I really focused on knowing those companies and, you know, I can’t say that all 400 companies I know called, but I’ve pretty much read the annual reports for most of those companies.
Derek Pilecki:
Um, and so I, I use a value perspective and so I’m trying to buy stocks that I think are misunderstood and they’re cheap. And that misunderstanding by the market is going to get corrected somehow that people are too negative for some reason. And, um, and a lot of times that valuation, you know, will, will change when people come to realize that concern is a pass is, is passing. I think, um, I think we’re seeing that th- the, w- the financial sector has been this way for a long time, but so many generalists lost money in the financial sector during the financial crisis that they’ve ignored the sector.
Derek Pilecki:
And, you know, I’ve talked to tons and tons of funds that are like, “Oh, well we’re a generalist fund, but we don’t do much to financials or we’re a generalist fund and we really like Wells Fargo.” I’m like, “Yeah, that’s great.” Like Wells Fargo is, is pretty cheap and it’s a good turnaround, but there’s a lot of other more interesting stocks in the sector. And so I think that just it’s for around for doing some work and under applying some knowledge.
Robert Kraft:
I literally was just going to ask you, you know, what, what would you say is, has been the most misunderstood aspect about the financial sector right now? Um, but it sounds like that’s one of the things is that most generalists just ignored it since the financial crisis in 2007, 2008. I mean, is there any, is there anything else that’s, that’s been largely gone misunderstood about the space?
Derek Pilecki:
I think, you know, so people look at longterm returns of different sectors and the financials had a great long-term return up until the financial crisis. And then there was major big cap stocks that were either went to zero or were down 90%. So AIG, Citi group, Fannie, Freddie, WAMU, uh, Wachovia, um, you know, just huge impairments of value and a lot… Bear Stearns, Lehman, you know, so, so many large cap financials went down. If you look at the overall returns of the sector it lags a lot of the other sectors and people just think it’s not a really good sector.
Derek Pilecki:
Well, I think of that as a once in a lifetime type episode. And, you know, it happened during the great depression, the financial stocks got impaired. Maybe you could argue during the S&L crisis in the ’89, ’90 timeframe that got impaired, but then, you know, ’08 was a huge, huge deal. And with the, the change in Dodd-Frank laws, like there’s a lot more capital in the sector. And I think also the management teams really got scarred by that experience in a way.
Derek Pilecki:
So I don’t expect in the next cycle that the banks will have anything where near a severe cycle as they had in ’08. And so I think that’s going, you know, I could even look forward for… I think that might persist for the next 20 years. Like we’re not going to have an ’08 type scenario again, because the banks can’t legally, because they have a lot more capital and the management teams learned their lesson.
Derek Pilecki:
So I think, you know, it’s one of the, even though the banks are volatile, I think it’s one of the safest times zone banks in, you know, as far as if you think about an investing career. And I just think the generalists who ignore financials are missing that, missing that change.
Robert Kraft:
So, so then what are some of your criteria when you’re looking at potential investment in banks or any other business in the financial sector?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, well, I think it’s, um, well, I mean, I think there’s several things I think, uh, high returns on capital, um, and management teams that try to create value through capital management. So, you know, they’re buying back stock when it’s cheap. They’re not buying back stock when it’s expensive, they’re doing smart acquisitions if they can, or they’re n- avoiding dumb deals. And so I think that aspect is, is very important. And then, you know, I think there’s, um, there’s a lot of companies that have a little twist to the normal industry model that allows them to grow faster than the rest of the industry.
Derek Pilecki:
So like there’s tons of banks, right? And there’s a lot of generic banks that are not that interesting, but there’s some banks that have demonstrated they’re able to grow faster than others. And I think that’s, that’s super interesting, uh, and they tend to have higher returns because of that. So you can look at, um, companies like Silicon Valley bank shares or Western Alliance or Pinnacle Financial in Tennessee, they’ve all had, been great growth banks for a couple decades and I think that will continue, um, compared to some of the generic, you know, large regional banks that… You know, okay returns on capital, but not a lot of growth.
Derek Pilecki:
So just looking for the something, something twists that allows some twist to the business model that allows them to, to grow a little faster or produce higher returns on capital.
Robert Kraft:
Very good. And by the way, are you a shareholder in any of those three companies that you just mentioned?
Derek Pilecki:
Sure. Um, I- I do own Western Alliance and Pinnacle. Unfortunately I do not own Silicon Valley at the moment.
Robert Kraft:
All right, very good. So a- actually, in the Gator Capital, uh, investor deck that you sent over, uh, one of the slides has your own perspective investment themes in the portfolio. And you mentioned, uh, four categories here in Puerto Rico banks, consumer finance, small banks, and then a hard P&C insurance market. So, you know, why, why these, uh, these four spaces in particular, do you tend to focus on?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, so a lot of my investing is bottom up, um, an- analyzing companies for being misunderstood. Uh, valuations are cheap. I think the, the valuations will change. Um, and, uh, sometimes I’ll look at a sector and look at similar… Once I find a company that I like, like, um, Puerto Rican banks, I like LFG bank Corp. And so once I like that, I look at its competitors and those stocks look attractive to, and, uh, the, the stories are similar. Like the Puerto Rico banking market has consolidated back in 2007, there were 12 Puerto Rican banks for an island of like 5 million people and now there’s three.
Derek Pilecki:
And so that cons- it’s almost like an oligopoly there. And if you compare Puerto Rico to another island market like Hawaii, there’s only four banks in Hawaii, Bank of America and Wells Fargo exited Hawaii. So like it’s four local Hawaiian banks and they are in high returns and high margins, and they have high stock valuations.
Derek Pilecki:
Where in Puerto Rico it- it’s an oligopoly, they haven’t quite gotten their margins up because it’s a process. So I think their margins are expanding and I think the valuation will expand once the margins expand. So I think it’s, you know, we’re ge- Puerto Rico’s changing to an oligopoly market. And I think that’s, that’s interesting. I would say that maybe Puerto Rico doesn’t get the same valuation of Hawaii does longterm because it’s a territory versus a state.
Derek Pilecki:
But I think, you know, Puerto Rico has, is they’re US citizens and the banks are regulated by the FDIC. So the, they’re American banks, um, you know, and so it’s not like I, I said, oh, I think Puerto Rico bank, I just, I found a Puerto Rico bank and I was like-
Robert Kraft:
Great. (laughs)
Derek Pilecki:
… “Oh, the story’s good.” And so then I, I look around, so the same thing with the other sectors like consumer, consumer finance, we’ve long held, um, positions in consumer finance stocks. I think consumer finance, uh, companies grow faster than banks have higher returns, but they’re cheaper than banks. So I think that’s an evergreen opportunity. I think small banks in this rally that we’ve had in banks from last September through March of this year, it was really driven by the large cap banks and, uh, the small cap banks kind of got left in the dust.
Derek Pilecki:
And so I think there’s an opportunity right now with, with very small banks and part of that’s driven by the, the Russell reconstitution, the, um, you know, there are so many new IPO’s and SPACs that came out this year, that the minimum cutoff for the Russell 2000 inclusion every June has risen from 90 million to 245 million. And so there were 79 banks that got booted out of the Russell and a lot of those banks trade for book value seven or eight times earnings, and they’re operating just fine. They just had a big dumb index seller in June, and so I think there’s some interesting values in, in small banks. So the, you know, the, it’s the, um, kind of bubbles up from the bottom of, uh, you know, ways to describe the portfolio rather than being thematic investing.
Robert Kraft:
Got it. Okay. Yeah, no, I was just curious because, you know, send the investor text. So I, I didn’t know if that became your specialization where it’s, it’s kind of the flavor, it’s the flavor right now, you know, and then, uh, you know, at a certain point. So I wanted to actually zone in on one of the, I- I- believe it’s in consumer finance, so one, one, I, one of your current long ideas that’s in, uh, in the investor deck, Navient, uh, which is a student loan company.
Robert Kraft:
Um, so I’m just, I- I would love to hear your insights, not just on this idea in general, but just really the, the student loan, um, areas. Well, I mean, it gets a lot of headlines and, you know, loans are getting forgiven and stuff like that. So I’d love, love to hear your, your, your commentary there.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. So, I mean, I think the student lenders are very interesting because they’re hard to understand, like it’s a, y- there’s only three of them p- that are public traded, right it’s Nelnet, Sallie Mae, and, and Navient. And so to the, the amount of time that a analyst or portfolio manager would have to spend on them to come up to speed to have a view, I think they just trade cheap because it’s a lot of time to spend on just three small companies.
Derek Pilecki:
Um, I think the student loan market is super interesting, it’s changed a lot. So 90% of student loans are made by the federal government and 10% of loans are private loans. And so those loans are, um, they tend to be for the more expensive schools or for grad programs. And, you know, so like the first $17,000 you borrow for undergrad are government loans. And then if you have to borrow more than that, you go to a private lender and Sallie Mae dominates that market with 55% of the, of the market share.
Derek Pilecki:
So it, you know, it’s pretty stable pricing, pretty attractive margins. Um, Sallie Mae’s pricing is like, well, I work plus 600 like super wide margins. It’s risky, you’re lending to 18 and 19-year-olds for, they’re not going to start paying back till they’re 23. Um, but there’s a umbrella there, a pricing umbrella that allows Navient to come in and refinance some of the better loans away from Sallie Mae, um, Navient and Sallie Mae used to be the same c- part, part of the same company. And there was a spinoff back in, I think it was in 2014 and Navient took the existing portfolio and they were going to hold it and as there, that, those loans paid off, they used the capital to either buy new student loans or buy back stock.
Derek Pilecki:
And then Sally Mae took the loan origination platform and they, that was the growth story. And that, that played out, um, Navient has done a good job of refinancing liabilities, finding other, um, portfolios to buy. And so their, their earnings, although it was supposed to be like a decaying business, their earning’s actually grown over time. So, um, you know, I first got involved with Navient, um, r- right as COVID was hitting last year.
Derek Pilecki:
So like Navient was going to do three bucks and I bought the stock at 10, so traded for three times earnings and, uh, and COVID was hitting, it was a little scary for a while, but Navient traded down to five bucks, like with, within two weeks of owning it. And, uh, and so w- with the, the loan forgiveness and, you know, the amount of time that people have to, to, um, pay back their loans, uh, I thought, you know, worst case scenario Navient just gives everybody a s- six-month payment holiday and just t- tack the six months onto the end of the loan, um, student loans aren’t forgivable and bankrupt- and bankruptcy.
Derek Pilecki:
So I, I thought, uh, Navient would sail through just fine. Um, but you know, it was scary, their earnings are hard to understand because they have some derivatives, um, and market-to-market issues. But, um, you know, at five t- five bucks, if they’re in three bucks, it was at like a one and a half p- multiple is just kind of crazy cheap. Um, even coming into this year Navient will, still only was a 10. Um, now it’s, it’s doubled year to date or a little bit more than doubled year to date.
Derek Pilecki:
So I think it’s trading at eight times earnings and it, it’s, um, it had a, a standstill agreement with Sallie Mae. So for five years after it, uh, the spinoff Navient couldn’t go to colleges and originate student loans on campus. And that stand seller agreement expired, so now Navient’s starting to originate student loans on campus and their loan portfolio this year should flip from declining, uh, you know, through payoffs to actually growing. And so I think that will change investors perception about Navient and the multiple you should pay for, pay for their earnings so.
Robert Kraft:
Very good. I mean, so then coming out of that experience, looking at the student loan market, I mean, what… Because it’s actually I like, I have student loans, right. And the one thing that is, you know, we don’t have to make payments on because they’re all federal government loans, you know, that got suspended till next year. But I have friends that refinanced with private banks, they’ve been having to pay that back this entire time. I don’t even think they had any kind of forgiveness time. So I feel like that’s been the biggest misunderstood aspect when you think about, uh, the student loan space is that even in that 10% market of private loans, they haven’t had to stop you know.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah they’re still paying, you know.
Robert Kraft:
They’re still paying, and that ’cause that interest is accruing, you know, versus the federal side. I mean, the interest isn’t accruing so you can either just pay lump sums or wait.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. And I, I think, you know, I think the student lenders for a long time have had this cloud over the, the college, will anybody take out a student loan or, you know, if they pay off all the student loans, what will happen to their portfolio as well? It’s kind of similar to what you’re talking about, if federal government decides to forgive a bunch of student loan debt, they’re not going to forgive the private loans, they’re going to forgive the loans that are government guaranteed.
Derek Pilecki:
And then, you know, if you look at, um, free college, you know, New York has had free college, but there’s, um, restrictions placed on people like you have to commit to living in New York for five years, you have to get a B average, your family can’t make more than $125,000. And, and so like that doesn’t… Not everybody qualifies for that. So you still have to get student loans or… And, and you also have to go to a New York state school.
Derek Pilecki:
So like if you wanted to go to Colgate instead of SUNY, Stony Brook, like you’re taking out student loans. And so like the student loan market won’t go to zero. Um, you know, I think, I think Sallie Mae, Navient’s loans in, in the New York s- school state system went down for one year and two years later they were higher than they were before the free college offer. And so like, it’s a scary headline, like, oh, free college, but student lending still, still persists.
Derek Pilecki:
I would say that I do… I am concerned that student, uh, tuition is stretched so far that I don’t know that schools will continue to raise tuition prices or be able to, or, you know, the number of schools that exist will decline. Um, you know, I do worry that we’re stretched on, on that aspect, but, you know, people will still go to grad school and, um, you know, there’s plenty of people who are willing to pay for education, but I think the student loan market will persist.
Robert Kraft:
You know, when you’re, when you’re talking to your LPs and, you know, March, 2020 happens and they see that you’re heavily, you concentrated in (laughs) in small banks and student loans and insurance. I mean, you know, what, what were those conversations like in, in March, 2020? I mean, was it stay the course or like, “Hey, you have every right to be worried,” no idea what we’re getting into right now. I mean that… What were those conversations like?
Derek Pilecki:
You know, you know I’ve been doing this for 13 years and I’ve been blessed with a LP base that is very in tune with my investing style. And so I think when we go through hiccups like that, they’re not expecting me to outperform on the downside. They’re expecting me to bounce with the market. And so, like, I, I don’t think people were upset or surprised by my March 2020 performance. And, you know, when I bounced through the summer, that’s what they expected. Like if I had not recovered quickly after March I think I would’ve gotten some angry phone calls, but I think I got some calls of, is this a good time to add money? I got a lot of people who are like, “Ah,” you know, that’s kinda what I expected.
Derek Pilecki:
So, um, you know, I was lucky I did not have any redemptions until August. And so it was, you know, I- I am very grateful for my LP base. I, yeah they, they’ve been with me for a long time on average and, you know, they did not panic at the bottom. So which made it a lot easier to, to manage, manage the money and try to find, pick the spots to outperform on the, on the recovery.
Robert Kraft:
Right. But a- but at the same time, I mean, how do you manage that, that headline risk? Because I mean, you’re in spaces that more so than most it’s the headline risk is just ev- it’s ever-present.
Derek Pilecki:
I mean, I think March, 2020 like I did not think consumer finance was going to be the ground zero for the stock market. Like there was a l- a run on the bank, there was a liquidity crisis and I didn’t, you know, we all, we all knew that the, the pandemic was coming and the case counts were getting higher. I didn’t think it would focus on mortgage rates and, and, um, consumer finance companies would be the biggest problems. And so that was the huge surprise, like, uh, you know, and then oil went down and, um, you know, I think the following Monday regional banks index was down 16% in one day, I mean, that was, that was kind of crazy.
Derek Pilecki:
It was, you know, I remember having conversations with my analysts, like is SunTrust or Truist gonna go bankrupt? And you know, of course they didn’t, you know, they didn’t come close, but, you know, just the way the stocks were trading, it was like, everybody thinks these companies are worthless and it was just a huge run on the bank. You know, people were looking for liquidity wherever they could. And I did not expect that to, to be that bad.
Robert Kraft:
Sure. Absolutely. So a- another question on the fund construction, I mean, would you say, it- it- the portfolio is more, uh, more concentrated, tends to be more diversified somewhere in the middle, you know, and how did you, how did you think about that?
Derek Pilecki:
I mean, I usually have 25 names on the long side, but I think, you know, I, I know a lot of investors have 10 or 15 names, but you know, all 25 of my names are in the one sector. So I feel like that’s pretty concentrated. Like it’s, um, they all trade in, in line. You know, insurance vary some from capital markets from banks, but, you know, in a crash, they all go down. And, um, and so like, I think it’s, I think it’s relatively concentrated. I recently, when I’ve been adding to small banks, I haven’t been buying as larger position sizes just to preserve liquidity in the portfolio.
Derek Pilecki:
So the number of names has crept up a little bit, but it’s, you know, I feel like the small banks are interchangeable to a large extent. So it’s, it’s the same trade whether I own, you know, if I have 30% of the portfolio of small banks, whether I have, you know, seven, four percent positions or 14, 2% positions, um, you know, it’s, it’s the same trade.
Robert Kraft:
Absolutely. Do you like talk to management. I mean, uh, you know, some of these smaller banks or smaller market caps, there’s a little bit more access to management teams. I mean, do you, do you like to, do you like to chat with them and get their perspective and, and do all that? Is that part of your due diligence process or, or no?
Derek Pilecki:
Oh, uh, absolutely. Like, I, I like that the management teams don’t change in my sector a lot. Like I like the maintenance, uh, research and, and financials is a little bit easier than consumer tech, right. I mean, you don’t have product cycles, it’s loans and checking accounts. Like you’re not, you’re not trying to look at the, the… Do channel checks, like how many checking accounts did you open this week, right or this month?
Derek Pilecki:
Um, so it’s a little more long-term from that standpoint, like once you know the management team, you know their track record and you know, where they’re focused on adding value, you can maintain that dialogue over a period of years and it doesn’t change quarter to quarter. Right? So I, I like meeting the management teams before I buy the stock. Um, I like, uh, you know, I’d like most of the management teams, I guess, one thing that I learned when we were at GSam, I felt like we really knew the management teams well. I, I felt like there was, um, there were times where, uh, y- you become friends with the management team and you don’t, you kind of lose a little bit of objectivity.
Derek Pilecki:
So like, I don’t like getting close to being buddies with m- management teams, but I respect them. And like, you know, I look, try to learn about their businesses from them, but, you know, I don’t want to know what they had for breakfast.
Robert Kraft:
Okay. Fair enough. I don’t think anybody wants to know what someone’s [inaudible 00:38:19] h- had for breakfast. I- I know you’re kidding but, but all right, I’m going to throw you a, this is kind of a, this could be like the dumbest question anybody’s ever asked somebody that focused financially. I’m like, I tend to ask dumb questions every once in a while. So-
Derek Pilecki:
Sure.
Robert Kraft:
… d- do you think about crypto at all, when you think about some of your, some of your bank… So h- how do you evaluate cryptocurrency? Do you see it as a risk? Do you see it as a long-term opportunity or tailwind for some of your positions in some of these banks that you own, or consumer finance or anything, you know, love to hear your take on that?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, so I like learning about crypto. Um, I think, I think recently, I think there’s been changes like I… For a long time I was a doubter about crypto because with the patriarch, you know, the, the federal government likes to know where, who has the money and where the money’s going. And so, like I just discounted the aspect of crypto that you can hide yourself from the government. Like, I just didn’t think that was going to fly with the regulators, but, you know, it, that’s changed in my view in the last 18 months, I think, um, you know, some important players like Coinbase are willing to report transactions to the federal government.
Derek Pilecki:
So I think that is in- that was what changed my mind about crypto. Like it’s going to be, be around for, for a while and it’s going to be important asset class. And, um, and so I think that’s opportunity for a lot of companies in my space. I think it’s, you know, we see it with a few banks that are, um, providing deposit accounts for stable coins. I think, uh, I think the business models of the, the, the Coinbase’s of the world are pretty interesting, you know, interactive brokers just announced you could trade coins, you know, Fidelity’s working along those lines. I think that’s an important, uh, revenue source, um, for a lot of the brokers. And so I think it’s, I think it’s very, very interesting development.
Robert Kraft:
I mean h- have you talked to some of the management teams and some of the positions that you have and be like, “Hey, are you… Is there plans, are you looking at it?” You know, what’s, what’s been some of the responses?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. I mean, it, it varies. So like, um, I own shares in Axos bank in San Diego. And, um, you know, I think, I think there are just a very good management team, very forward-thinking they, um, they try to grow the bank in a very thoughtful, organic manner and they just bought a clearing business and they’re gonna, um, grow that side of the business and they get some benefits on the bank side from the clearing business. And they’re providing services to broker dealers and RAAs, and they’re adding crypto trading capability to, you know, for their customers to be the broker dealers that trade on their platform.
Derek Pilecki:
So I, and I think within my portfolio, that’s the one area, one holding that’s really trying to take advantage of it. Um, you know, a lot of the regional banks or small banks, it’s just, it’s, it’s not, um, it’s not a factor yet. Um, you know, and I, I guess I’ve recently been doing some work on title insurance, which is one of the, um, biggest, you know, one of the biggest threats to title insurance is the blockchain, right? I mean, title insurance, you know, some people think it’s a scam, right? Meaning we all over pay for title when we want to buy a house.
Derek Pilecki:
Um, but you know, those companies throw off a lot of cash and they trade cheap. So, you know, is that business going to disintegrate because of cr- because of the blockchain? I don’t know, but you know, doing a lot of learning right now.
Robert Kraft:
Absolutely. Um, so my one last question on looking in, in the financial sector, I- I mean, what, what would you say are some of the overall opportunities? And then, I mean, we already kind of talked about some of the concerns, but what would you say are some of the overall opportunities now moving forward that gets you just gets you really excited about financials, uh, on a daily basis-
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah.
Robert Kraft:
… at least moving forward.
Derek Pilecki:
So I think there’s… I, I mentioned this earlier. I think the market is very much like 1999 where there’s some expensive stocks and some crazy frothy stocks. And then there’s a lot of businesses that are pretty reasonable valuations. And I think a lot of those val- good valuations are in, within the financial sector. I think, um, if you look at banks, generally they trade cheap relative to the rest of the market. Like they usually trade 85 or 90% of the market multiple, I think right now it’s like 58% of the market multiple. So banks are cheap relative to the market, cheaper than they usually are. Right? And I think that’s super interesting, especially since interest rates are zero. And if rates go to one or two percent, the banks earnings are going to take a stair-step higher. So you have cheap valuations on, uh, you know, under earning business models.
Derek Pilecki:
So like they start, you raise rates and then you get a, a reasonable valuation on the higher rates and banks should have pretty nice returns. So, I think that’s interesting. Um, you know, I, I see so many interesting areas with financials. It’s kind of picking like, which is going to move first. So like, I think everything related to housing has lagged, surprisingly, so mortgage insurance, some mortgage brokers, um, title insurance. I think those are all interesting businesses that are printing cash in this housing market and the stocks really haven’t moved. So I think that’s interesting.
Derek Pilecki:
I think, I think European banks are super interesting, you know, especially if rates go up in Europe, like those things trade super cheap. Like I own Barclays in that west group, you know, I think Barclays is 60% of tangible book and they’re buying back 5% of the stock. And if rates go up, (laughs) I mean their, their income statement’s going to explode higher. So it’s kinda trying to decide, okay, which of these cheap groups is going to realize the value first?
Derek Pilecki:
Um, you know, we talked about consumer finance and, and, um, Puerto Rican banks, uh, small banks, and then, uh, you know, insurance, we’re going through a hard market insurance. So hard market insurance is price, insurance prices are going up. So like if you’ve had a insurance policy, your rate probably renewed much higher this year versus last year. And, you know, we haven’t had a hard market since t- 2001, 2002, and it’s just an opportunity for the, um, the disciplined underwriters insurance to, to expand their business and, and put on more risk.
Derek Pilecki:
And so I think there’s a lot of interesting opportunities within financials that people just don’t, you know, it’s not in the general investment conversation.
Robert Kraft:
Very good. All right. Well, we’re at that part of the interview where I ask my favorite question to ask, and you’ve kind of touched on it already. So if there’s another story here, you know, I’d love to hear it. Uh, but what would you say is an investing experience that really changed your career either the most, or if you already told us the most, uh, then, uh, number two or, or three?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. So, I mean, I guess my, you know, so I launched my fund in July 1st of ’08. So 10 weeks before they shot Lehman brothers, I launched a financial services fund. Right and so like, and I had dreamed about this since I was 24, 25, I think on the second date with my wife, she knew that I was going to launch a hedge fund. You know, she didn’t, you know, it wasn’t going to happen then, but it was eventually going to happen. And so, you know, I- I’d saved, we lived very modestly when I worked at Goldman, saved up a bunch of money, launched the hedge fund and the crash happened and I got torched and I was like… I- I had hired an analyst. I moved them down to Tampa. I’m like, “Whoa, that dream of having a hedge fund just went, went by really quickly.”
Derek Pilecki:
And so, you know, I gave him two, two weeks severance said, “Go to New York and go get a job. I’m sorry, it didn’t work out.” And, but then October 1st ’08, I sat down at my desk at home and I was like, “Whoa, I had saved all this money and now I’m, you know, my balance sheets upside down. I need to make money today.” And, uh, I traded October 1st and I made like $5,000 and I made money almost every day in October ’08, when the market went down 16%, I just focused like today I’m making money. And it was one of those things where your back’s up against the wall and, uh, you’re going to make… You have to either succeed or fail.
Derek Pilecki:
And, you know, I was able to scratch out some gains. So I only finished ’08 down 14 or 15%. And, um, and then I, I kinda caught 09 very well. Like I was, um, I- I thought that the credit markets were going to heal and I thought that the, uh, they weren’t going to nationalize any more big banks, but I wasn’t certain. And so you, I was kind of neutral during the e- early ’09 and I, I made money the first couple of months of ’09 in a down market.
Derek Pilecki:
And then, uh, you know, this is going to sound crazy, um, my research is a little bit more deep than this, but, um, you know, when, uh, in the end of February of ’09 Citigroup got to its third bailout, like they did a preferred for common swap. And it was like, well, if Citigroup had such deal, they’re not going to, they’re going to give a better deal to Bank of America. So bank of America is not going to go, go under and Bank of America’s preferred’s were trading for like 30 cents in the dollar that morning. So I bought, you know, a 6% position in Bank of America preferred’s at 30 cents on the dollar and they finished ’09 at, at, um, at par, um, you know, Bill Ackman was talking about walking GGP through bankruptcy, the stock was at 60 cents when he actually… When, uh, GGP actually declared bankruptcy (laughs) the stock went to 42 cents and I bought, you know, 1% position at 42%, 42 cents and it finished a year at eight and a half dollars.
Derek Pilecki:
So it was like a 20 bagger. Um, and then, uh, and then the first Sunday in March, uh, Ben Bernanke was on 60 Minutes and he said, “Uh, we’re not going to nationalize any more big banks.” And I turned to my wife and it’s like, “He just rang the bell. That’s the bottom.” That’s what the market needed here. And then the market bottom two days later.
Derek Pilecki:
And so when I heard him say that I went in and bought every large cap, formerly large cap bank that was trading under five bucks and just, you know, fifth, third, um, regions, SunTrust, whatever, just bought a bunch of them. And, uh, you know, kind of caught that. I sold them all too early. Right? I mean, but, but I mean, they were either doubles or triples within 60 days. So, you know, I caught ’09 correctly and so I think that transforming experience from like October 1st ’08 to like April 30th ’09 was, um, you know, it was painful for a lot of people, but I was able to, um, just focus on the very short term and make smart decisions and, um, make money and get a good start, you know, turn around the start of the hedge fund so.
Robert Kraft:
That’s a great story. I was hope… Listen, uh, for everybody listening, when he talked about how, how Derek started his fund at, when he did, I was going to get to that. So I’m glad that you told that story. I’m very happy to hear that. I mean, what a time, right? Like (laughs) I mean-
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. [crosstalk 00:49:41].
Robert Kraft:
H- h- how much money went into, how much money went into scotch for those six months?
Derek Pilecki:
(laughs)
Robert Kraft:
Just a little bit, right?
Derek Pilecki:
I mean, there’ve been several periods of running a hedge, this hedge fund where I’ve not slept and I would say that was the first one. It’s like-
Robert Kraft:
That was the first one.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. There was not a lot of sleep going on during that time period, but, you know, it’s also invigorating and, and kind of life transforming.
Robert Kraft:
Yeah. I mean, when are, when are other times where you’re just like, you’re, you’re holding, you’re holding the bottle for a second, and just say, “Uh-oh.” I mean, is it when, uh, when, uh, you know, uh, I guess Brexit, I guess Brexit must’ve been a big one.
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah. So, you know, Brexit happened, you know, Brexit was kind of towards the end of the period. So like, um-
Robert Kraft:
Yeah.
Derek Pilecki:
… the previous summer when Puerto Rico said they weren’t going to honor their debts and I owned a bunch of, I own Puerto Rican banks and the bond insurers then that was pretty tough. And then I also owned the private equity firms and when the high yield market fell out of bed in the fall of ’15, the private equity firms didn’t do too well. So I mean that whole time period from, you know, middle of 15 through the middle of 16 was, was, uh, was a tough one.
Derek Pilecki:
The end of 18 was not fun, you know, obviously March of 2020, so, you know, it’s, it also changes like, oh ’08, ’09, it was stressful, but I didn’t really have investors in the fund. I was the only investor when ’15 and ’16 happened I had grown the fund to a pretty decent size, and I was, you just feel a lot more responsibility for your LPs money. And so, um, that, that’s super stressful when your people have placed their trust in you and you’re not making them money or you’re losing money that you, you don’t want to let people down and I take that very seriously.
Robert Kraft:
I mean, look, I- I’m sure they’re not that upset when you have a 21, uh, gray they’re 21.7%, uh, uh, annual, uh, w- was, I think that’s your compounded, uh, growth, uh, since you’re starting away, right?
Derek Pilecki:
Yes, it is.
Robert Kraft:
(laughs)
Derek Pilecki:
Yes.
Robert Kraft:
So I’m, I’m, I’m sure, I’m sure they’re, they’re, they’re happy now. So, you know, before I let you go here today, and again, thank you for spending time with me and, and, you know, telling us your story and your investing philosophy and framework. So, you know, um, what advice would you have for investors that might be looking at banks for the first time or just the financial sector in general? Wh- what are some, some things that you’d like them to know?
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah, I would say, um, yeah, I guess the things that I like about, I think banks are a tough, tough sector. Like I think the longterm banks are becoming more com- competitive and the intense, competitive intensity banking’s increasing. So, um, you know, interstate branch laws went away 25 years ago. I think it’s, I think it’s going to be hard going forward, but I think there’s some management teams that have outperformed over a long period of time. And I think they, that past success will continue going forward.
Derek Pilecki:
I also think that, um, you know, I th I think they, if you take a long-term view of banks, you can make more money. I think if you worry about what rates are doing today or the shape of the yield curve, I think that a lot of that’s noise. So if you see banks trading off because of the yield curve’s flattening, I- I- I would just ignore that, I focus on the banks, they grow their deposits and grow their loans and have high returns on equity. And I think you’ll, you’ll do well with that, with those, those metrics.
Robert Kraft:
Very good. Well, Derek, we’re there, man. Where, where can our audience go and find more information on you? Follow you as well as, uh, learn more about capital, uh, Gator Capital?
Derek Pilecki:
SO if you sign up for our newsletter on gatorcapital.com, we’re happy to send your research as we publish it. I also tweet, uh, sporadically on Twitter @gatorcapital, um, and you know, my phone number and email address are on our website. So, you know, if you want to reach out and talk to me, I’m always open to, to conversations with investors.
Robert Kraft:
Very good. And you know, I’m sure a lot of people have been wondering, but did you, did you go, you didn’t go to the University of Florida, right?
Derek Pilecki:
No, no. [crosstalk 00:53:58]
Robert Kraft:
Just, like we gotta make sure this is the most, this is the most important disclosure of the entire interview right now.
Derek Pilecki:
I did not go to UF. So if you went to Florida state, you can still invest with me. Right?
Robert Kraft:
(laughs)
Derek Pilecki:
You know, so when I was at Goldman, we used to make fun of the stupid hedge fund names. And then when I started a hedge fund, I was like, “Oh man, I need to pick one of these names.” And I was surprised, I wanted something regional sounding, which in hindsight might not as been good because it afforded base hedge fund people don’t love that. Like people in the Northeast don’t like that I’m in Florida. So, so this was probably in hindsight, this was probably wasn’t the smartest thing, but I didn’t want to call it Sunshine Capital or Palm Tree Capital and I was surprised nobody had taken Gator Capital.
Derek Pilecki:
So I had, um, you know, I actually got the domain name from a, uh, high school baseball coach in New Jersey who had, um, who it was a university of Delaware grad. And he called his investment club, Blue Hen Capital and he was like, “Hey, this is kind of cool. I bet a lot of hedge fund guys would name their, um, their, their fund after their, uh, college mascot.” And so he went in, he went and bought all the college mascots and capital.coms. And so I had to negotiate with him to get Gator Capital from him. So the guy who runs Wolverine Capital had bought, was the other sale he had made. And, uh, so I bought Gator Capital from him.
Robert Kraft:
That’s kind of brilliant. I hope we also got like gatorcap.com like the short version so that, you know, ’cause I’m sure everyone’s like, “Oh, well I’ll just get around with that.”
Derek Pilecki:
Yeah.
Robert Kraft:
Or, or gat-, or gatorcm.com. (laughs)
Derek Pilecki:
Uh, I should probably go to my GoDaddy account by those up right now.
Robert Kraft:
I appreciate it. Well, with that, Derek thanks so much for joining me today. This is a lot of fun. I really, again, appreciate you taking the time and I- I look forward to our next conversation.
Derek Pilecki:
That sounds great, Bobby, thanks for having me on. Good talking to you.
Robert Kraft:
This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. SNN Network, SNN Inc, and the Planet MicroCap Podcast, and the representatives are not licensed brokers, broker/dealers, market makers, investment bankers, investment advisors, analysts, or underwriters. We do not recommend any companies discussed, we may buy and sell securities in any company mentioned, and may profit in the event those securities rise in value. We recommend you consult with a professional investment advisor broker or legal counsel before purchasing or selling any securities referenced in this podcast.